After a remarkable post-IPO surge, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares experienced their first daily decline, falling 7.6% to close at $201.50 on Wednesday. This dip occurred after the stock had climbed nearly 50% since its Friday debut, pushing its market capitalization to an estimated $2.66 trillion, surpassing Amazon and briefly Microsoft to become the fifth-largest company globally.
The initial euphoria surrounding SpaceX's IPO was partially fueled by significant retail investor interest, with reports indicating retail buyers purchased as much SpaceX stock as all other US single stocks combined in the prior week. This aggressive accumulation briefly sent the stock past $225, with intraday volume exceeding 200 million shares, and cementing SpaceX as one of the most valuable businesses globally.
Analysts have raised concerns about the valuation, which trades at roughly 20x projected 2027 sales while the company posted an annual net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and lost $4.28 billion in Q1 of this year. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, noted that investors are trading on excitement and Musk's profile, and the company will need to prove its fundamentals can support such a large valuation.
The upcoming Q2 earnings report will trigger the first major insider lock-up expiration, releasing an initial 20% tranche of restricted SpaceX shares into the open market. This event is expected to ease the float scarcity that has contributed to the stock's rally. Institutional short sellers are reportedly positioning for this liquidity influx, driving up borrowing rates on the limited available shares. Charlie Billelo, an executive at Creative Planning, cautioned that the situation echoes past "meme stock" manias.
Despite the recent decline, SpaceX has passed its initial test with flying colors following a 49% gain since its IPO and a major acquisition announcement of Anysphere, expanding into artificial intelligence. However, the true test will come as lock-up expirations throughout the year, especially around December 8, 2026, release billions of newly tradable shares, examining whether investor demand is durable enough to absorb the increased supply.
