Saudi Arabia significantly increased its crude oil exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu ahead of the Houthi announcement of a maritime embargo. More than 70% of the kingdom's normal crude exports were diverted to Yanbu, with shipments averaging about 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks. This is a substantial increase compared to approximately 973,000 barrels per day during the same period last year, according to Kpler and Signal Ocean data. Daily loadings from Yanbu even reached roughly 4.7 million barrels around July 13, pushing the port close to its practical loading limits.

This shift was a strategic move by Saudi Aramco to maintain crude exports while tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz were constrained due to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. The East-West Pipeline, or Petroline, which runs 1,201 km from the eastern Abqaiq oil field to Yanbu, played a crucial role, having reached its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day in the first quarter.

The Houthis' subsequent declaration of a "maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy" specifically targets Saudi ships in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital artery for global energy trade. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab al-Mandeb reached 7.4 million barrels per day in June, accounting for about 7% of global oil output, up from 4.2 million barrels per day a year earlier. This move, if enforced, could significantly impact Saudi Arabia's ability to export crude from Yanbu, particularly to Asian markets which typically route through Bab al-Mandeb. Rystad vessel-tracking data suggests around 2.5 million barrels per day of crude leaving Yanbu currently passes south through Bab al-Mandeb.

While the Houthis have not yet clarified how they will enforce this embargo, analysts like Mohammed Albasha of Basha Report and Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy note that the announcement alone is likely to cause shipping disruptions and create uncertainty for Saudi ports. The Houthis have demonstrated a capability and willingness to disrupt Red Sea shipping, as evidenced by their previous attacks on over 100 vessels. If a ceasefire in the region is not achieved and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed while the Red Sea threat intensifies, a significant rebound in oil prices is expected.