President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are in a statistical tie ahead of Brazil's October election, according to an AtlasIntel poll conducted for Bloomberg News. In a potential second-round scenario, Lula garnered 47.7% support compared to Flávio's 47.4%. This result shows minimal change from a previous poll conducted the prior week, keeping the race within the survey's 1 percentage point margin of error.
For the first round, the poll indicated Lula with 45.8% against Flávio's 43.4%. Polls have consistently shown a technical tie between the two leading candidates leading up to the first round on October 4, with both likely advancing to a second round three weeks later.
Flávio Bolsonaro has gained momentum following revelations linking Supreme Court justices to Daniel Vorcaro, former owner of Banco Master SA, who is currently under investigation for banking fraud. The senator is attempting to connect this scandal to Lula and stir public dissatisfaction with the political establishment. Meanwhile, Lula's administration increased benefits for the Bolsa Família social program last week in an effort to boost his standing in the race.
The AtlasIntel poll surveyed 5,015 individuals between September 17 and September 22, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point. The survey reinforces that the dispute is concentrated between the two main candidates, with Lula and Flávio collectively accounting for 89.2% of first-round intentions. The poll also noted a slight improvement in Lula's approval rating, with disapproval falling from 54% to 53%, while approval remained at 45%.
Other candidates trailed significantly; Renan Santos held 4.5%, Augusto Cury 2.1%, Ronaldo Caiado 1.3%, and Romeu Zema 0.9%. The survey indicated that the cost of food remains the primary financial concern for 44.2% of respondents, despite a decrease in the percentage of those citing debts and interest as a major pressure on household budgets, likely due to a government debt renegotiation program.
