The recent swift advance of Houthi forces along Yemen's Red Sea coast, culminating in the seizure of the port city of Mocha and strengthening their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, was directly guided by Iran's Revolutionary Guards. This move aims to establish a new front in Iran's conflict with the United States. Iranian sources indicate that Tehran encouraged the Houthis to escalate attacks on Saudi Arabia, a close U.S. ally, and pledged increased funding, weapons, and senior officers to support these efforts. Several senior Revolutionary Guards commanders have reportedly traveled to Yemen to oversee and command Houthi operations against Saudi Arabia following extensive discussions on military strategy.
The Houthis have amassed a substantial arsenal of drones, ballistic missiles, and anti-ship weapons, rivaling the capabilities of modern nation-states. Despite past U.S. and Israeli strikes, their ability to produce and deploy these weapons remains robust, largely due to assistance from Iranian engineers and components predominantly from China. The group employs a sophisticated smuggling network and front companies to import dual-use items, such as washing machine circuit boards and jet ski engines, which are then used to manufacture drones costing as little as $1,500 each. Iranian expertise is crucial for the proliferation of drones and ballistic missiles, with IRGC operatives reportedly embedded with Houthi forces.
Iran's partnership with China plays a significant role in this supply chain. Customs data analyzed by The Wall Street Journal reveals around 1,300 shipments of "dual use" components from China to Iran's defense ministry this year through June, including electronics for drone parts and missile guidance systems. While China has publicly called for restraint and dialogue, it has privately urged Iran to help rein in the Houthis following an appeal from Saudi Arabia. Beijing's concern stems from the potential for wider conflict to disrupt global energy routes, on which China, as Iran's largest trading partner and main oil buyer, heavily relies. This strategic collaboration allows the Houthis and Iran to potentially gain "complete fire control" over crucial shipping lanes, posing a significant global impact by threatening to choke commercial traffic through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, especially if coordinated with Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
