India is experiencing its driest monsoon season in 17 years, with cumulative rainfall from June to September recorded at 15% below the long-term average. This significant deficit is largely attributed to a strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which is curbing rainfall across the country. The lack of sufficient monsoon rains poses a considerable threat to crop yields and is expected to increase food price risks.
The erratic nature of this year's monsoon, driven by an intensifying El Niño and global warming, has created unstable weather patterns. The season began with India's fifth-driest June on record, experiencing rainfall almost 40% below normal levels. This was followed by a sudden, intense downpour in early July in some regions before the weather system stalled again. By July 19, national rainfall was approximately 24% lower than usual for that period, further highlighting the inconsistent distribution.
While the overall acreage for kharif (summer-sown) crops declined slightly by just over 1% compared to the previous year, it still managed to stay marginally above the five-year 'normal' average. This indicates that farmers adapted their strategies in response to early warnings of deficient monsoon rainfall. However, the true impact of the rainfall deficit will be reflected in the crop yields, particularly for water-intensive crops like paddy, which saw a 3.6% decline in acreage from last year but remained 4.6% higher than its 'normal' acreage. Pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and coarse cereals in the 'monsoon core zone' are expected to be significantly affected.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) initially forecast below-normal rainfall and has reported that 41% of the country's area has experienced deficient seasonal rainfall. Drought conditions are particularly widespread in western and southern India, affecting about 79% and 67% of these regions, respectively, as of September 16. The agriculture ministry is discussing contingency measures for the upcoming rabi (winter-sown) crops, as low soil moisture and water shortages are anticipated. The persistence of El Niño into the post-monsoon period adds further uncertainty to India's agricultural and water outlook.
