TotalEnergies presented its 2025 Strategy & Outlook in New York on September 29, 2025, outlining a balanced and profitable transition strategy focused on two pillars: Oil & Gas, primarily LNG, and Integrated Power. The company aims for a 4% per year increase in overall energy production (oil, gas, and electricity) through 2030, with a short-term growth of approximately 5% per year in 2025 and 2026. This growth is supported by maintaining core accretive projects and continuously reloading its exploration portfolio with around $1 billion annually in exploration and appraisal efforts.
To support its growth objectives, TotalEnergies announced a $7.5 billion savings program in Capex and Opex over 2026-2030. This includes reducing net Capex guidance to approximately $16 billion in 2026 and $15-17 billion per year from 2027-2030, a reduction of $1 billion annually compared to previous guidance. The company will prioritize high-margin upstream projects and selectively invest in low-carbon Capex, totaling around $4 billion per year, with $3-4 billion specifically for the Integrated Power business. Emissions reduction targets include a 50% decrease in Oil & Gas Scope 1+2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2015, and an 80% reduction in methane emissions by 2030 compared to 2020.
TotalEnergies projects a 3% per year oil and gas growth between 2024 and 2030, driven by new high-margin oil and major LNG projects. Integrated LNG is expected to see over 70% cash flow growth by 2030 compared to 2024, supported by 50% sales growth from projects in the United States and Qatar. The Integrated Power segment is set for significant expansion, targeting an approximately 20% annual increase in electricity production through 2030, reaching 100 to 120 TWh/y. Of this, 70% will come from renewables and 30% from flexible gas. The company intends to focus these investments in deregulated markets like the United States, Europe, and Brazil, with the Integrated Power segment expected to be free cash-flow positive by 2028 and achieve a ROACE of 12% by 2030, contributing to dividend growth and enhanced resilience.
Shareholder returns remain a priority, with the Board of Directors reaffirming a policy of over 40% annual cash flow payout regardless of energy prices. The company also announced $1.5 billion in share buybacks for the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing the full year 2025 total to $7.5 billion. For 2026, share buybacks are guided between $0.75 billion and $1.5 billion per quarter, assuming a Brent price of $60-70/b and an exchange rate of around 1.20 $/€. This strategy is anticipated to lead to a payout of approximately 50% at $70/b in 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to attractive shareholder returns fueled by buybacks and cash flow growth.
