The Iran War has resulted in U.S. consumers spending approximately $107 billion more on gasoline and diesel than they would have without the conflict and disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to estimates by the Climate Solutions Lab at Brown University. This translates to over $500 million per day since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th, with a recent surge in crude oil prices ensuring this cost will continue to rise. Separately, Moody's Analytics estimates the total bill per household since the conflict began to be around $1,760, with $930 of that attributed to higher energy costs.
Beyond fuel, the war is also impacting the cost of vehicle maintenance, specifically oil changes. Synthetic motor oil, essential for many newer hybrid vehicles, has seen price increases of 20% to 30% since early June 2026. This rise is attributed to tightening supply chains for base oils used in synthetic lubricants due to disrupted refineries and shipping routes in and around the Middle East. Group III base oil, a critical ingredient, reached a record $12.45 per gallon on September 18th, nearly four times its February level.
The supply squeeze has led to major retailers like Costco implementing purchase limits, with customers restricted to two 10-quart packages of Kirkland Signature full-synthetic motor oil every seven days. This product now costs $57.99 for two 5-quart containers, compared to roughly $30 last year. Jiffy Lube CEO Mauricio Quezada expects intermittent shortages, while Valvoline anticipates finished lubricant costs to climb as much as 60% above pre-conflict levels, translating to an additional $5 to $7 per oil change at its company-operated locations.
While conventional oil and standard 5W-30 synthetic blends for older vehicles are experiencing smaller price increases, owners of newer hybrids requiring low-viscosity synthetic oils like 0W-8 and 0W-16 are feeling the most significant impact. The cost of a full synthetic oil change for a hybrid can now range widely, from under $70 to over $120, depending on the market and wholesale costs. Experts advise drivers to check their owner's manuals for recommended oil types and drain intervals, noting that modern lubricants often allow for longer intervals than the traditional 3,000 miles. For most motorists, the immediate effect will be higher prices rather than an inability to obtain oil.
The overall financial burden on U.S. consumers from the Iran War extends beyond direct energy costs. Moody's Analytics also attributes $425 of the $1,760 per-household bill to higher interest rates and another $405 to increased military spending. Gasoline prices averaged over $4.32 per gallon in mid-September, up 6% month-over-month and 36% year-over-year, while diesel prices reached all-time highs above $6 per gallon, roughly 70% higher than a year prior. Economists warn that higher diesel costs, impacting transportation, could lead to further consumer price increases for goods.
