A recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, released on Thursday, September 17, indicates that current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the first round of the presidential election with 44.1% of the vote. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is catching up rapidly, securing 41.7% of the intentions, marking a significant 4.5 percentage point increase for Bolsonaro compared to the previous poll on September 9. Lula experienced a minor 0.5 percentage point decrease within the margin of error.
The poll highlights a highly polarized electorate, with other candidates trailing significantly. Renan Santos (Missão) holds 5.1% of the votes, while writer Augusto Cury (Avante) has 3.5%. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Zema (Novo) have 1.7% and 1.1% respectively, and Samara Martins (UP) has 0.7%. A small percentage, 1.6%, accounts for blank or null votes, and 0.5% are undecided.
In a simulated second-round scenario, the competition between Lula and Bolsonaro is even tighter, with a technical tie within the margin of error. Bolsonaro numerically leads with 47.2% against Lula's 46.8%. This narrow 0.4 percentage point difference suggests a highly competitive runoff. Blank and null votes are projected at 6% in this scenario, while 0.5% of voters are undecided. The poll surveyed 5,018 voters between September 11 and 16, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point and a 95% confidence level.
The financial markets have reacted to these political developments, with the dollar falling against the Brazilian real. The "electoral trade" favored Bolsonaro's slight numerical lead, with the dollar trading at R$5.13. The market views Lula with skepticism regarding fiscal policy, leading to a strengthening of the real and a rise in the Ibovespa when Bolsonaro gains traction. The Central Bank recently cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75%, following a similar move by the Federal Reserve, which raised its rate to 3.75%-4.00%.
