Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently warned that Russia is likely planning hybrid drone and missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine, explicitly naming Poland as a potential target. This follows a period of escalating Russian aggression across Europe.
Over the summer, Russian attacks have pushed deeper into European territory. For instance, on August 11, military divers destroyed two drones off Romania's coast near a €4 billion ($4.7 billion) energy project. Nine days later, two F-16s were scrambled to intercept a maritime drone near the same Black Sea gas platform, which had hundreds of workers aboard. Earlier in August, a German airport detected an armed UAV, and a NATO jet recently downed an unmanned aircraft that entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus.
These incidents highlight a broader pattern of Russian provocations. Tusk received a briefing from CIA Director Jim Ratcliffe, who recently visited Moscow, indicating significant risks posed by Russia in the coming months. Poland and other European countries should prepare for intensified actions, including potential provocations at border crossings with Ukraine. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also noted "deliberate damage" to a border crossing with Romania and export infrastructure, while Romania has seen a threefold increase in drone incursions this year compared to 2025.
Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk warned that any spillover into European countries could manifest as sabotage or an unprecedented escalation of hybrid warfare along NATO's borders. Last week, a Russian military drone was reportedly recovered from the Baltic Sea near Jaroslawiec, Poland. These warnings come amidst a series of incidents, including a railway attack where former Western officials had just passed, another drone shot down in Lithuania, and sabotage affecting Dutch trains, all contributing to a "grey-zone" conflict that tests NATO's Article 5.
