The robotaxi market is rapidly moving from a testing phase to commercial deployment, with significant financial growth expected. Goldman Sachs Research predicts the global robotaxi market to reach approximately $415 billion by 2035, with the US portion alone estimated at $48 billion. This expansion is fueled by improving safety records and increased customer demand, with deployments expanding across the US, China, Europe, and the Middle East. The global commercial AV robotaxi fleet is forecast to surge from about 7,000 vehicles last year to around 6 million in 2035.
Key drivers for this growth include falling operational costs. The total cost of goods sold per mile for vertically integrated AV rideshare operators in the US is expected to drop below $1 by 2035. This reduction is attributed to declining vehicle depreciation costs, lower insurance premiums, and a significant decrease in remote operator wages per mile, as the ratio of vehicles per human supervisor improves from 6-to-1 today to 26-to-1 in 2035.
The overall autonomous vehicle sector, encompassing hardware, software, and services, is estimated to generate $2 trillion in revenue by 2035. This includes sales of robotaxis, consumer vehicles with advanced autonomy, AV trucks, and delivery robots, alongside software subscriptions and digital services. Specifically, revenue tied to AI technology, such as virtual driver software and consumer autonomy subscriptions, is projected to reach $300 billion in 2035. Uber has committed over $10 billion to deploy 120,000 driverless vehicles and plans to operate in at least 15 cities this year, viewing the US market as a $1 trillion opportunity.
