Iranian officials are set to attend a meeting on Monday with Gulf Arab states in Oman. The purpose of this meeting is to present an agreement that Iran claims to have reached with Oman concerning future shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic initiative comes amidst ongoing concerns about oil supply disruptions due to recent attacks in the region.
The meeting will proceed without the United States, a critical player in the region's maritime security. Despite the US military escorting oil tankers and President Donald Trump's assertion that the waterway's state is acceptable, regional countries are unwilling to accept the current status quo. Oman hopes that this regional agreement will compel the Trump administration to acknowledge that the future of the strait will be determined by regional nations.
Commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low due to continued attacks since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. Iran has expressed interest in collecting transit fees and has proposed routes where traffic into the Persian Gulf would pass through Iranian waters, while outbound routes would traverse both Iranian and Omani waters. However, Iran has stated that the waterway would only reopen if the US terminates its blockade.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has cautioned against expecting a breakthrough from these talks, stating that counting on a consensual agreement with Iran is "certainly not a good bet." He believes markets will continue to rely on transit workarounds, which he estimates are still supplying 10 million barrels a day of crude and oil products. An Iranian source also indicated that while the understanding with Oman establishes a basis for reopening, it does not guarantee immediate reopening, as it depends on the US meeting Tehran’s conditions.
