Mining billionaire Robert Friedland, founder of Ivanhoe Mines, has issued a stark warning regarding an impending global copper crisis, asserting that current demand trends will outstrip supply within two decades. He claims that over the next 18 years, the world will need to mine an equivalent amount of copper to what has been extracted over the past 10,000 years combined. This immense demand is driven not only by standard economic growth but also by the electrification of the global economy, the retooling of power grids, and the explosive energy demands of artificial intelligence. Friedland emphasized that a 3% global GDP growth rate alone necessitates this historical doubling of copper production.
Friedland's message has been consistent over the years, highlighting that insufficient capital has been invested in finding the metals crucial for the energy transformation. He points out that copper, trading at over $5 per pound (roughly $11,130 per tonne) as of October 2025, a 55% increase from five years prior, is still not at a price point that justifies the immense capital costs of building new mines. He predicts copper must reach $15,000 per tonne to incentivize the necessary production, stating that $9,000 per tonne is not enough to mitigate the inherent risks. The current global consumption is about 30 million tonnes of copper annually, with only 4 million tonnes coming from recycling.
The strategic importance of copper extends beyond economics, playing a critical role in national security. Friedland highlighted its use in military hardware, citing US military concerns over shortages of 155-millimeter howitzer shells. This urgency is spurring calls for a renaissance in US copper mining to reduce dependence on foreign sources. Friedland also credits recent US administrations, including the current Trump administration, for recognizing the necessity of securing domestic raw materials, suggesting increased government support for the mining sector. He describes the situation as a "powder keg ready to explode," underscoring that copper demand is "essentially infinite" as there is no rational price for a material deemed essential.
