The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounts for over 70% of global cobalt mine supply, has implemented export restrictions and quotas since February 2025 to curb oversupply and boost prices. These measures initially led to a significant price rally, with benchmark cobalt metal prices recovering from a nine-year low of $22,000/mt in 2025 to $57,000/mt by December of the same year, and $56,414/mt at the beginning of 2026. This represents an increase of over 160% since the initial ban on shipments. However, the rally is now fading, posing a challenge to the DRC's strategy.
Under the quota system, total cobalt exports are capped at 96,600 metric tons annually for both 2026 and 2027. Of this, 87,000 metric tons are distributed among commercial miners based on historical export volumes, and 9,600 metric tons are allocated to a government-controlled strategic national reserve. The Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances' Markets (ARECOMS) has also mandated that unused export quotas from the first half of the year will be automatically revoked and transferred to the strategic reserve.
Major players like Glencore have seen their cobalt output fall by 39% in the first three months of 2026 compared to 2025, prioritizing copper production to avoid exceeding their 22,800-ton quota. Conversely, China's CMOC, the world's largest cobalt supplier, continues record cobalt output, planning to produce up to 120,000 tons from its DRC operations despite an export entitlement of only 31,200 tons. CMOC is reportedly stockpiling the excess, banking on future export opportunities. Analysts like Peter Major of Modern Corporate Solutions warn that while the quota logic aimed to strengthen formal channels, it might inadvertently boost the black market for illicitly mined cobalt.
In addition to the export quotas, the DRC also banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates in August 2026 to force domestic processing and retain more value from its mineral resources. This ban, though unlikely to severely impact most operators due to existing domestic refining capacity, saw copper prices rise by 1.8% to $14,369.50 a metric ton. The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analyst Roman Aubry noting that while the DRC has a detailed quota system for the next two years, it reserves the right to adjust it, leading to continued market uncertainty and prompting international consumers to seek alternative sources.
The overall impact of these policies, according to S&P Global's modeling, could push the market into a near-term deficit, increasing prices and the DRC's export value by approximately 24% in 2027 compared to 2024. However, the fading rally suggests that the effectiveness of these measures in sustained price control is under scrutiny, and the strategy favors deep-pocketed miners capable of managing stockpiles or adjusting production, while smaller, legitimate producers may face greater challenges.
