The Swiss watch industry is experiencing a significant divergence, with high-end brands performing exceptionally well amidst a general decline in exports and volumes. In 2025, the industry's total export values decreased by 1.7%, following a 2.8% decline in 2024. Volume suffered an even steeper drop, with 740,000 fewer watches shipped in 2025 compared to the previous year, marking a 4.8% decrease. This contraction in volume brings the industry to a multi-decade low of 14.6 million units, roughly half of the 2011 peak. Despite these overall negative trends, watches priced above $50,000, primarily from a few dominant brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille, represent 37% of the industry’s export values while accounting for only 1.4% of its volume. This indicates a "bifurcation" where the industry is shrinking in volume but the value floor is rising.
Four privately held brands—Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille—have significantly increased their market share, now controlling nearly half of the Swiss watch industry by value and an estimated 76% of its operating profit pool. Rolex alone accounts for 32.9% of the market with $11 billion in sales, even surpassing Apple Watch in retail revenue. In contrast, many other brands, particularly in the mid-market segment (priced between $2,000 and $10,000), are struggling. Secondary market values for brands like IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Blancpain, and Panerai are declining, with Audemars Piguet's market index dropping by 4.9% and Vacheron Constantin's by 11.3% in a year. The report highlights that consumers are either trading up for brands with strong resale value and cultural cachet or opting out entirely.
This market shift is having significant consequences for employment and manufacturing. Around 43% of the approximately 2,650 watch industry companies in Switzerland have implemented short-time working arrangements since June 2024, utilizing a state-backed employment compensation scheme that paid out $79.6 million, covering about 4% of the industry's workforce. The impending end of this scheme on July 31 is expected to further impact businesses. Talent is migrating to other sectors, with 1,350 fewer production staff in watchmaking last year compared to 2024. Analysts suggest that the industry's structural problems, coupled with the decline in volumes, mean that many third-party suppliers no longer have the capacity to produce competitively. Some component manufacturers are already diversifying into areas like medtech or space technology.
Rising gold prices are adding another layer of complexity. Gold, which was $2,300 an ounce a year ago, now costs around $3,300, a 40% increase. Watches made of precious metals constituted almost 40% of total Swiss watch exports by value in 2025, but only 2.7% by volume. Major brands like Rolex have increased prices on their gold watches by 8% this year, with another increase expected, following two increases in 2024. Other brands have reduced their gold watch inventories, with Cartier, for example, cutting its inventory by 63.8%, causing the average price of its watches to fall by 30.4%. Experts anticipate that only the most desirable brands, like Rolex, will be able to navigate these rising costs without significant impact on volumes, while lesser-known brands will likely need to adjust to lower volumes and cut costs to remain viable.
