Travelers are exhibiting a strong trend towards last-minute bookings, with the average global lead time for reservations shrinking to about 14 days, nearly a fifth shorter than 2019 levels. This shift is particularly pronounced among leisure travelers, as 62% of mobile OTA reservations are now made within 72 hours of check-in. City center hotels, especially mid-week, are seeing over 30% of their occupancy filled in the final 24 hours before arrival, creating operational challenges for staffing. Best Western, for instance, reported that almost 40% of its direct bookings in the last quarter of 2025 originated from same-day digital searches.
In response to this trend, hotels are adapting their strategies. Best Western developed "Flex-Rate Bundles" that offer perks like late check-out, converting 9% better on mobile devices compared to standard flexible rates. Their pricing teams have also implemented prediction models focusing on demand within the next 48 hours, which has reduced unbooked rooms by over 7% at mid-range properties. While last-minute bookings made within 24 hours often yield a slightly lower room rate, approximately 4% less than bookings made a week in advance, hotels are aiming to offset this difference through upsells at the front desk.
This increased demand for flexibility means that flexible cancellation policies are now considered a premium feature, leading to higher prices for these options. In contrast, non-refundable bookings continue to be made with longer lead times, though that window has also shortened by about 5% since before 2019. The market is now heavily geared towards immediate demand, with revenue systems largely ignoring bookings made more than two weeks out to focus on the final 48 hours of demand signals. This makes bargain hunting more difficult for last-minute travelers, as inventory is often limited to what remains.
Additionally, the "shoulder season" for travel, typically September through mid-November, is shrinking, and the associated savings are eroding. In 2023, domestic flight savings during the fall shoulder season averaged 20% compared to summer; however, in 2026, prices are expected to be slightly higher than summer fares. Lodging prices in the top 10 US destinations are 20% higher in fall versus summer, and airfare is up 2%. International flights to Europe, which were 33% cheaper in fall 2023, are now only 22% cheaper. This trend is driven by factors such as extreme summer heat pushing travelers to the fall, better price discovery tools, and airlines leaning into higher-margin demand. Some data suggests that September is becoming a new high-demand period, with real value shifting later into October and November.
