Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the October election, though Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap by one percentage point, according to a Datafolha poll released on August 21, 2026. This poll shows Lula with 39% of the vote and Flavio Bolsonaro with 33%.
Another poll by BTG Pactual/Nexus, conducted between August 14 and 16, indicates Lula with 41% of the vote compared to Flavio Bolsonaro's 36%. This represents a 5-point lead for Lula. The BTG/Nexus survey highlights that Lula's lead has shrunk from 9 percentage points in late July to 5 points in mid-August. Both candidates saw a one-point increase in support in this latest BTG/Nexus survey.
The Datafolha poll, which surveyed 2,058 voters between August 18 and 20, has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll surveyed 2,003 voters with the same margin of error. Regional and demographic breakdowns from the BTG/Nexus poll show Lula performing strongly in the Northeast (57% to Bolsonaro's 25%) and among women (46% to 32%), while Bolsonaro leads among men (41% to Lula's 36%) and in the South. Lula also holds a significant lead among lower-income voters.
Both candidates officially launched their presidential campaigns on August 16. Lula began his campaign in São Bernardo do Campo, emphasizing his political origins and promising to create a Ministry of Public Security. Flavio Bolsonaro launched his campaign in Copacabana, criticizing the current government and the Supreme Court, while also addressing public safety and economic issues.
