President Trump had been preparing to announce an end to the Iran war, contingent on the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran. He had even privately indicated to senior aides a willingness to forgo a nuclear deal if this condition was met. However, Iran has introduced new demands, including billions in reparations and a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, which have disrupted these plans. This recent hardening of Iran's position is limiting the White House's options for concluding the conflict before the upcoming midterms.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for an end to the "neither war nor peace" status with the United States, expressing confidence that Iran is in a strong position for an agreement. Negotiations with Oman are nearing completion regarding transit and management of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the reopening of the strait is tied to additional conditions and compensation for what Iran views as a violation of a June memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the U.S.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that discussions with Oman over the strait are in their final stages, but emphasized that reopening is contingent on other conditions and compensation. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council has outlined six conditions, including ending U.S. threats, halting attacks on Iran and its allies, lifting the U.S. naval blockade and withdrawing forces, paying compensation for war damages, lifting global sanctions, and unconditionally releasing frozen Iranian assets. The U.S. opposes giving Iran unilateral control over the waterway and has objected to proposed fees. Reopening Hormuz without significant economic relief would mean Iran relinquishes a powerful bargaining chip without adequate returns. The war, which began on February 28, has resulted in over 3,400 deaths, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil shipments passed, has kept energy prices a central focus of U.S. politics ahead of the midterms.
