Adidas is making significant strides in the performance running market, directly challenging long-time rival Nike. This resurgence is highlighted by Sabastian Sawe's marathon world record in Adidas's Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3 trainers. Shares of Adidas rose after this achievement, with UBS analysts maintaining a "Buy" recommendation and forecasting an 8% annual sales increase through 2030, believing running will be a major revenue driver. The company's global running category revenues were up 28% from 2025 in the quarter ending in March, and Adidas expects further growth despite acknowledging the need to do more to fully re-engage with the running community.
Nike, despite strong running business performance, faces increased competition. Its running division grew by $1 billion over five quarters to over $5 billion, gaining five market share points and experiencing consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. However, analysts like BNP Paribas' Laurent Vasilescu note that Nike Running's growth slowed to mid-single digits in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and its estimated $4.4 billion in revenue over a four-quarter basis (or $5.5 billion reported based on wholesale equivalent) is still not at its fiscal year 2021 level of $4 billion wholesale equivalent.
The overall running footwear market is experiencing intensifying competition. Emerging brands like HOKA (owned by Deckers Brands) and On are pushing established giants. HOKA reported a 14.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $671.2 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. On, meanwhile, is launching new technologies like the Cloudsurfer 3 platform with Surreal foam. Evercore ISI analysts point to Nike's upcoming Spring 2027 innovation pipeline, targeting the highly cushioned running segment, an area where HOKA has excelled, as evidence of this heightened competition. The market expects Deckers' earnings report to shed more light on the competitive landscape.
Adidas's strategic focus extends beyond high-end racing shoes; its record-breaking performance serves as a global showcase for its entire product portfolio, aiming to draw recreational runners into the Adidas ecosystem through more affordable models. This strategy aims to leverage the perception of speed and innovation across a broader customer base. Nike also saw net income rise significantly to $1.07 billion (72 cents a diluted share) for the three months ended May 31, up from $211 million (14 cents) in the prior-year period, though overall revenues slipped 1% to $10.97 billion.
