Moderna's stock price experienced a dramatic increase, rising over 170% in a single day and adding nearly $45 billion to its market capitalization. This surge brought the company's valuation to levels not seen since 2024, a significant turnaround after years of declining stock prices due to sputtering sales and decreased revenue projections following the COVID-19 pandemic.
The catalyst for this extraordinary jump was the success of intismeran, an individualized cancer vaccine developed in partnership with Merck & Co. The vaccine met its primary and secondary goals in a highly anticipated Phase 3 trial for melanoma, reducing the risk of cancer recurrence or death. Although specific data was not disclosed, analysts like Trung Huynh of RBC Capital Markets called it a "major win," and Tyler Van Buren of TD Cowen described it as a "landmark moment."
Analysts have revised their projections, with William Blair's Myles Minter estimating peak annual sales of $5.4 billion from intismeran in melanoma alone, based on a 50-50 revenue split with Merck. Leerink Partners analysts now anticipate approximately $1.4 billion in sales for the therapy by 2032, an increase from their prior estimate of up to $1.2 billion. The positive results also generated optimism for nine other ongoing trials Moderna and Merck are conducting, including mid-stage results for kidney and bladder cancers expected later this year or in 2027, and a late-stage trial for lung cancer.
Despite the enthusiasm, some analysts urged caution. Cory Kasimov of Evercore ISI noted that the new valuation "already prices in substantially more conviction than the data disclosed thus far supports." Daina Graybosch of Leerink Partners warned that the market reaction was "overly optimistic," suggesting that expectations might be difficult to meet and that melanoma is "uniquely suited to a vaccine," implying that success in other cancer types might not be guaranteed.
