Moderna and Merck announced that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, in combination with Merck's immunotherapy Keytruda, met its primary goals in a late-stage clinical trial for high-risk melanoma. This marks the first positive late-stage trial result for an mRNA cancer vaccine, training the body to fight specific cancer cells.
The news triggered a significant market response, with Moderna's shares surging by as much as 177%, adding nearly $45 billion to its market value. Merck's stock also climbed over 12%. This success has been seen as a critical validation for mRNA technology beyond infectious diseases and a much-needed boost for Moderna, which had seen its stock price decline since its COVID-19 vaccine peak.
The combination treatment significantly extended the time patients lived without their melanoma returning and reduced the risk of the cancer spreading to other parts of the body. While detailed data are yet to be presented, analysts like Trung Huynh of RBC Capital Markets called it a "major win." Barclays estimates the therapy could generate about $3 billion in melanoma sales by 2035. William Blair analyst Myles Minter projected peak annual sales in melanoma alone could reach $5.4 billion from Moderna's 50-50 revenue split with Merck.
However, some analysts cautioned that the market's reaction might be overly optimistic. Evercore ISI's Cory Kasimov noted that Moderna's new valuation "already prices in substantially more conviction than the data disclosed thus far supports." Leerink Partners analyst Daina Graybosch suggested the market reaction was "overly optimistic" and that the high expectations might be difficult to meet, particularly since melanoma is considered "uniquely suited to a vaccine," and success in other indications is not guaranteed.
