Moderna and Merck announced that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine achieved its primary goals in a late-stage trial for melanoma. The vaccine, in combination with Merck's immunotherapy drug Keytruda, successfully reduced the risk of recurrence and spread of melanoma in patients who had undergone surgery to remove high-risk tumors. This positive interim analysis sent Moderna's shares soaring by as much as 160%, adding approximately $30 billion to its market capitalization, while Merck's shares climbed 12% to an all-time high.
The Phase 3 trial involved over 1,100 patients with advanced melanoma whose detectable cancer had been completely removed. The companies did not release detailed data but stated the combination regimen met the main study goal of significantly extending the time patients lived without their melanoma returning and also reduced the risk of the cancer spreading. This builds on earlier positive Phase 2 data where the combination reduced the relative risk of death or recurrence by 44% over Keytruda alone.
Analysts have reacted positively, with TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren calling it a "landmark moment." Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai projected billions of dollars in sales from the vaccine in melanoma alone, with Barclays estimating sales could reach about $3 billion by 2035. Leerink Partners analysts have revised their sales potential for the therapy to about $1.4 billion by 2032, up from a previous projection of $1.2 billion. The success is seen as crucial for Moderna, demonstrating the potential of mRNA technology beyond infectious diseases, and investors are also evaluating the commercial prospects in other cancer types like kidney, bladder, and non-small cell lung cancers where the treatment is also being tested.
