Moderna's shares skyrocketed by as much as 160% on Wednesday, closing up 177% to $174.38, following the announcement of successful late-stage trial results for its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine. Developed in partnership with Merck, the vaccine, when combined with Merck's immunotherapy drug Keytruda, substantially reduced the risk of recurrence and spread of melanoma in patients. This success represents a significant milestone in the new field of cancer treatment, particularly for Moderna, whose stock had faced a difficult period since its COVID-era highs in August 2021, remaining down approximately two-thirds even after Wednesday's surge.
Merck also saw a boost from the news, with its shares climbing more than 12%. The trial results indicated that the combination regimen met its primary endpoint, extending the time patients lived without their melanoma returning compared to Keytruda alone. It also successfully reduced the risk of the cancer spreading to distant parts of the body. Barclays analysts estimate that this therapy could generate approximately $3 billion in melanoma sales by 2035, highlighting its significant market potential.
This positive outcome builds on earlier successful Phase 2 trial data for the same regimen. Analysts, including Mani Foroohar of Leerink Partners, had previously viewed the Phase 3 results as a make-or-break event for Moderna's stock. Experts like Professor Georgina Long and oncologists Lennard Lee and Marco Gerlinger hailed the results as a "landmark moment" and a "breakthrough" in cancer immunotherapies, demonstrating the viability of personalized cancer vaccines. The companies plan to present the full data at an upcoming international conference and begin filing for regulatory approval, potentially making the vaccine available to thousands of high-risk melanoma patients as early as next year.
