Moderna's stock experienced a substantial increase, soaring as much as 177% to $174.38, while Merck's shares climbed over 12% on Wednesday. This surge followed an announcement that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, developed in partnership, met key goals in a Phase 3 trial for melanoma. The vaccine, when used in combination with Merck's immunotherapy drug Keytruda, significantly reduced the risk of recurrence and spread of melanoma in patients who had undergone surgery for high-risk tumors.
The interim analysis of the late-stage trial, which involved over 1,100 patients, showed that the combination regimen successfully extended the time patients lived without their melanoma returning and also reduced the risk of the cancer spreading to distant parts of the body. These positive results build upon earlier successful Phase 2 data. Moderna President Stephen Hoge indicated that thousands of patients could benefit as early as next year if regulators approve the vaccine.
This development is considered a major breakthrough in cancer treatment, with Moderna's CEO Stephane Bancel calling it a "big moment for medicine" and patients. Analysts like William Blair's Myles Minter believe the interim results position both companies well for regulatory approval and bode positively for the vaccine's ongoing studies in other cancer types, including non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. Barclays analysts previously estimated the therapy could generate around $3 billion in melanoma sales by 2035, and J.P. Morgan analysts emphasized the importance of the vaccine's launch for Moderna's return to profitability. The success also addresses investor concerns about Moderna's growth drivers beyond its COVID-19 vaccine and Merck's impending patent loss for Keytruda later this decade.
