Iran has appointed Mohsen Rezaei, former chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), replacing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. This reshuffle is seen by some analysts as a potential hardline turn in Iran's approach to the ongoing negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Rezaei, 72, was the longest-serving commander of the IRGC from 1981 to 1997 and was added to the U.S. Treasury's list of Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs) in 2020. While both Rezaei and Zolghadr are considered security hardliners, Rezaei's standing in Iran's military and political circles is perceived as firmer. The SNSC secretary is formally appointed by the Supreme Leader, and interpretations of this change are divided, with some suggesting it could be an attempt to rein in Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, who has been leading negotiations with the United States.
Simultaneously, Iran and Oman are close to finalizing an agreement on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that talks with Oman on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz were "close" to reaching an agreement, with the two sides working to determine a temporary route. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed that negotiations are "forward-moving" and a deal would be struck "if certain third parties do not obstruct this process." A joint statement from Tehran and Muscat is reportedly in the final drafting stage. While a deal on a shipping route is nearing completion, Iranian officials emphasize that this does not automatically mean the reopening of the strait, as its ultimate reopening depends on broader U.S.-Iran relations and the lifting of U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade.
Iran's conditions for fully reopening the waterway include a permanent halt to U.S. military operations against Iran and its regional allies, the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and all sanctions against Iran, the return of frozen Iranian assets, and compensation for losses. The U.S., on the other hand, wants total freedom of commercial navigation through the waterway without Iranian tolls or approval for transit. U.S. officials have stated they will not accept any arrangement that leaves Iran in control of the waterway. However, analysts believe the U.S. may have to compromise. Eight of the world's largest shipping associations have urged the United Nations to oppose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, citing that such charges would violate international norms and harm the global economy. Iran has intimated plans for a fee system, although international maritime law generally prohibits tolls on international straits.
