Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has raised its full-year profit forecast for 2026, driven by a robust outlook for oilseed processing and newfound clarity regarding US biofuel blending mandates. The company now expects adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 to be between $4.15 and $4.70, an increase from its prior guidance of $3.60 to $4.25 per share. This updated outlook primarily reflects anticipated earnings improvements in ADM's crushing and ethanol businesses, following the finalization of the 2026 and 2027 renewable volume obligations under the US Renewable Fuels Standard in March 2026.
In the first quarter of 2026, ADM reported an adjusted profit of $0.71 per share, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $0.66 per share. While the Ag Services subsegment saw a 26% increase in operating profit compared to the prior year, reaching $200 million, primarily due to higher North American export activity, particularly soybean and sorghum shipments to China, the crushing unit experienced a quarterly operating loss of $79 million, down from a profit of $47 million a year earlier. This decline in crushing was attributed to net negative mark-to-market and timing impacts, with ADM expecting most of these to reverse in the second quarter.
Despite the positive update, some analysts, like JPMorgan, noted that the guidance increase was not a "particularly positive surprise," with some expecting a forecast closer to $5 per share. However, analyst Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research commented that the biofuel policy, both in the US and globally, is the "most constructive it's ever been." Shares of ADM rose more than 5% following the announcement. The company's capital expenditures are still projected to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion.
