Russian oil exports fell during the first week of August, primarily due to a lull in Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. This allowed some facilities to resume operations or increase throughput, leading to more crude being processed domestically rather than exported. Seaborne crude shipments dropped by 340,000 barrels per day to 2.87 million barrels per day in the week ending August 2, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week average for exports also saw a decrease, falling by 110,000 barrels per day to 3.23 million barrels per day.
This shift comes after months of intense Ukrainian drone campaigns targeting Russian energy infrastructure, which had significantly hampered refining capacity. In July, Russian crude processing hit its lowest level in over two decades, estimated at 3.6 million barrels per day, down from a seasonal average of 5.3 million to 5.6 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2025. These attacks, totaling 30 in July, forced Russia to export larger volumes of crude oil as refineries were unable to process it.
However, the recent dip in exports may be temporary. While August shipments from western ports were initially projected to increase by 4% from July, due to refinery disruptions, the recent data suggests a momentary reversal. The broader trend still points to increased crude exports to offset reduced refining capacity, as evidenced by earlier reports of crude exports surging to over 4 million barrels per day by late June and remaining high through July. This is further complicated by Russia's ban on most diesel and gasoline exports to prevent domestic shortages, which has tightened global refined product markets.
