Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Investment Strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, shared her long-term outlook for stocks, stating that a secular bull market is expected to persist through the end of the current decade. She projects the S&P 500 to reach 10,000 to 13,000 by the decade's end, driven by strong earnings and the continued leadership of technology and international stocks.
However, Bartels anticipates that the next decade will likely kick off with a secular bear market. Before that, 2026 is expected to be a "reset year" with an S&P 500 target of 7,500, representing a more modest 6% gain. This is partly due to 2026 being a midterm election year, which historically brings increased market volatility, particularly between April and September.
Despite the expected volatility in 2026, Bartels advises investors not to abandon technology and related sectors, which she believes will remain market leaders. Semiconductors, in particular, are highlighted as a crucial industry group, with insatiable demand driven by artificial intelligence. She acknowledges that markets have performed exceptionally well since the 2022 bear market lows, with the S&P 500 up 100% and the "Magnificent Seven" even more, suggesting a need for consolidation or a "break" for these leading companies.
Bartels's outlook also incorporates a "decennial pattern," where years ending in six tend to see a 6% average market increase. She has raised her year-end S&P 500 target from 7,500 to 8,225, coining her theme for the second half of 2026 as the "Bucking Bull," indicating continued upward movement but with significant swings and potential for meaningful corrections, especially in September.
