Deutsche Bank's commodity team, led by analyst Michael Hsueh, has adjusted its Q3 2026 gold price target downwards by 22% to $4,300 per ounce from an earlier forecast of approximately $5,500. Despite this reduction, the bank's revised forecast range of $4,300 to $4,800 still implies gold is fairly valued near $4,700 an ounce by year-end. This new target is significantly higher than levels seen just a couple of years ago, reflecting a continued bullish outlook.
The bank still maintains a possibility of gold reaching $6,000 per ounce in 2026, a projection initially made on January 27. Gold prices had previously hit an all-time high of roughly $5,110.50 earlier in 2026, with peaks approaching $5,405, before correcting back to the $4,000 to $4,100 range. The current market shows gold recovering above $4,050, partly due to a declining U.S. dollar and hopes of a Middle East peace deal, which has led to a slump in oil prices.
The primary driver behind Deutsche Bank's optimistic long-term forecast is robust central bank demand. In Q1 2026 alone, central banks collectively purchased 244 metric tons of gold, with significant contributions from countries like Poland, Uzbekistan, and China. This rate of purchase far exceeds historical averages and represents a structural demand that is increasingly disconnected from speculative market dynamics or investor flows, particularly through ETFs, which have softened. The bank's analysts emphasize gold's growing role as a non-dollar reserve asset. However, a bear case for gold, potentially seeing it drop to $3,800 per ounce, is predicated on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates three to four times, as higher real yields make non-interest-bearing gold less attractive.
