The war with Iran, initiated on February 28, has accumulated substantial costs, with direct military expenditures reaching at least $37.5 billion through mid-July. Economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics estimated the total cost, including consumer impacts, to be $100 billion in the first four months, translating to approximately $685 per U.S. tax return before accounting for June and July's expenses. The conflict has also claimed the lives of 18 service members and wounded 624 by late July.
One of the most direct impacts on American consumers has been a significant surge in gasoline prices, which are now about $1.15 higher than pre-war levels, and at times have been as much as $1.55 higher. This increase in gasoline prices has also contributed to overall inflation due to higher transportation costs for other goods. The conflict has also led to a reduction in U.S. weapons stockpiles, with a May 2026 analysis projecting that heavily-used munitions like Tomahawk missile systems and Patriot and THAAD interceptors could take three to four years to replenish.
The war's geopolitical consequences include Iran's newly asserted control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, posing a significant concern for global trade. Iran and Oman are reportedly discussing imposing tolls on traffic through the Strait, while the U.S. has considered security fees. This newfound leverage for Iran threatens the return of pre-war maritime traffic volumes, making any potential deal over the Strait fragile. The war has been largely unpopular, with about two-thirds of U.S. adults, including most Democrats and independents, and 37% of Republicans, viewing it as not worthwhile. Foreign policy experts are skeptical of President Trump's optimistic assessments, with one senior fellow describing the outcome as a "major strategic defeat" if the war were to end now.
