The United States is facing a significant challenge in securing a domestic supply of tungsten, a critical metal for defense, aerospace, and semiconductor manufacturing, as a federal procurement deadline of January 1, 2027, approaches. This deadline, under federal regulations like DFARS 252.225-7052 and Executive Order 14415, prohibits the use of tungsten from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea in U.S. defense applications. Despite the urgent need, the U.S. has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015, leaving the defense industrial base heavily reliant on foreign supply, particularly from China, which controls approximately 80% of global mine supply and dominates the refining process.
China's tightening grip on the tungsten market has led to substantial price increases, with the benchmark ammonium paratungstate (APT) price in Rotterdam trading around $3,000-$3,200 per metric tonne unit in mid-2026. This represents a roughly 900% increase over the prior twelve months from 2025 lows, and a 350% increase in 2026 alone, indicating a structural repricing of supply risk rather than typical market volatility. Beijing began tightening export licensing in 2023, intensified the squeeze in 2025, and by December 2025, confirmed only 15 companies would be authorized to export tungsten in 2026-27, giving the state direct control over volume, timing, and destination.
U.S. firms are struggling to meet the upcoming demand. For example, while U.S. demand for the most common type of rare earth magnet was about 48,000 metric tons in 2025, domestic sources supplied only 300 metric tons, with projected capacity to reach 5,000 metric tons by year-end 2026. Experts like Chris Berry, a minerals industry analyst, state that the U.S. has little chance of producing enough critical minerals to end waivers by January 2027. The U.S. has reserves of most critical minerals but lacks the capacity to mine and process many of them, a sector where China controls over 80% globally.
Several companies are attempting to address this deficit. Guardian Metal Resources is working to open a U.S. tungsten mine by 2028, with its flagship Pilot Mountain project in Nevada holding an indicated resource of 8.694 million tons. The Department of War has shown interest, awarding Guardian $6.2 million under the Defense Production Act to advance processing capacity studies. Additionally, Western Star Resources Inc. has initiated modern exploration at its White Star Tungsten Project in Nevada, a past-producing property, to develop drill-ready targets. However, the timeline for these projects to become fully operational and meet the national demand before the 2027 deadline remains a significant challenge.
