This week will be dominated by critical monetary policy decisions from three major central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Fed is widely anticipated to maintain its target range at 3.50%–3.75% during its July 28-29 meeting, which will not include updated economic projections. The focus will be on the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for future guidance. Following the Fed's decision, significant US economic data will be released on Thursday, including preliminary second-quarter GDP, expected to show an annualized growth of 2.3%, up from 2.1%. Monthly Core PCE inflation is forecast to slow to 0.1% from 0.3%, while Initial Jobless Claims are projected to rise to 206,000 from 187,000.
The Bank of England is also expected to keep its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% following its July 30 meeting. This decision will be accompanied by Meeting Minutes, a Monetary Policy Summary, and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, with Governor Andrew Bailey speaking after the announcement. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain its policy rate at 1.00% at its July 30-31 meeting, releasing its monetary policy statement and quarterly Outlook Report. Investors are closely watching these events, with the GBP/USD trading higher near 1.3325 ahead of the BoE announcement and the USD/JPY holding near 163.80 before the BoJ decision.
Beyond central bank actions, several other economic indicators will attract attention. Australia's RBA Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, followed by June inflation figures on Wednesday, with the monthly headline CPI expected to increase 0.3% after a 0.7% fall in May. Annual inflation previously stood at 4.0%, and the Trimmed Mean CPI was 3.6% year-over-year. China’s official PMIs are also important, with the Manufacturing PMI expected to fall to 49.9 from 50.3, indicating a return to contraction. In the Eurozone, German inflation figures will be released on Thursday, followed by broader Eurozone inflation data on Friday, where headline Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% year-over-year from 2.8%, and the core rate is forecast to remain at 2.4%.
