The European heatwave has severely impacted grain production, resulting in an estimated €2 billion reduction in the crop's value. This weather event has led to a significant downward revision in the total grain production for the EU and United Kingdom for 2026, with forecasts dropping by $23.4$ million tonnes from the previous year to $286.6$ million tonnes.
Wheat production (excluding durum) is now expected at $140.8$ million tonnes, a decrease from the earlier forecast of $143.7$ million tonnes and well below the $149.8$ million tonnes produced in 2025. Corn production has been revised down to $52.7$ million tonnes from a previous forecast of $57.2$ million tonnes and is considerably lower than last year's $57.4$ million tonnes. France, in particular, is forecast to see its corn crop fall to $9.4$ million tonnes, its lowest level in over two decades.
Barley production is forecast at $57.6$ million tonnes, a slight reduction from the previous forecast of $58.8$ million tonnes and significantly less than the $63.8$ million tonnes produced last year. Rainfed crops, particularly spring barley, suffered more from the heat than winter barley, which had largely completed its development. While rapeseed production also saw a downward revision to $21.2$ million tonnes, the damage from the heatwave was less severe compared to wheat and corn. The heatwave affected wheat kernel filling in central and southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland, Hungary, and Spain, and impacted corn pollination in the southern half of France and Hungary.
