Russian strikes on Ukraine's port infrastructure have effectively stopped the country's deep-water grain exports. Most major grain traders have suspended purchases of agricultural commodities at deep-water ports, and several terminals have temporarily ceased operations. This situation has been worsened by shipowners refusing to call at Ukrainian ports due to force majeure concerns following the recent attacks.
Traders are now incorporating significantly higher logistics costs into their purchase prices. They are increasingly relying on alternative export routes through Romania and other western corridors, which are considerably more expensive and have much lower capacity than Ukraine’s deep-water port logistics. While a complete and prolonged shutdown of maritime exports is unlikely, operations are expected to remain severely constrained over the coming weeks.
The disruption has already impacted the domestic market. Rapeseed purchase prices at Ukrainian crushing plants have fallen by approximately UAH 1,000 per ton this week. Grain prices have also declined, including bids from feed mills. For instance, Kernel, which has been targeted by Russian attacks three times in the past five days, reduced bid prices at its TBT terminal in Chornomorsk for Class 2 and Class 3 wheat, as well as corn, by UAH 200/t to UAH 10,200/t. Class 4 wheat fell to UAH 9,700/t, and barley to UAH 9,150/t. NIBULON also reduced purchase prices at its elevators and suspended grain purchases at OZT DPZKU and TIS-ZERNO terminals.
