Restoring the flow of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels would necessitate a significantly larger U.S. military presence, potentially including tens of thousands of American troops on Iranian soil. This is due to Iran's continued ability to target vessels with hidden drones and missiles within its vast territory, which is roughly a third the size of the continental United States.
Experts indicate that establishing such a force would require several months to organize and would incur "very high costs." This substantial deployment would not only be needed to neutralize Iran's hidden munitions but also to secure hundreds of miles of coastline and extensive inland areas, preventing further attacks and potential insurgencies. The potential for U.S. service member losses could increase significantly, particularly during efforts to clear anti-cruise missile and drone launch sites, and even higher if escort operations are undertaken.
Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and former Pentagon official, highlights Iran's decades-long preparation for asymmetric conflict, explaining why past U.S. presidents have avoided escalating conflict to this degree due to Iran's capacity to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Despite ongoing U.S. airstrikes on Iran, military strategists expect that opening the strait would still require months of dedicated effort, signifying significant challenges and risks.
