Amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, reflected in an exchange of tit-for-tat attacks and competing claims over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant number of ships have been transiting the waterway with their transponders turned off. Preliminary Kpler data analyzed by Bloomberg News revealed that all six commodity carriers on Sunday, July 13, 2026, made these "dark crossings," outnumbering observable passages in the preceding three days. This trend underscores shipowners' preference for secrecy as the situation in the Strait remains volatile, with an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman warning that ships using the US-supported route are at risk. Observable crossings have sharply declined, while a handful continue to use the northern, Iran-designated safe route.
President Donald Trump has announced plans to reinstate a US blockade of Iranian ships in Hormuz and impose a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the strait, declaring the US as the waterway's "GUARDIAN." This proposed levy is estimated by Lipow Oil Associates to add approximately $16 per barrel to crude shipped through the strait. For a supertanker carrying about 2 million barrels of crude, with oil prices around $80 per barrel, this 20% fee could amount to roughly $39 million per vessel. The White House has not yet provided details on how this charge would be administered or communicated to allies, with the shipping industry expressing surprise and skepticism given the lack of prior warning.
Analysts are concerned that Trump's proposed fee, coupled with renewed fighting, could threaten the global oil surplus and lead to supply shortages, especially if the Strait of Hormuz completely shuts down. The immediate impact is seen as supportive of oil prices, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery rising 2.27% to $79.91 per barrel and international benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery climbing 2.14% to $85.11. Citi warns that implementing the fee could increase the risk of a broader military confrontation and potentially lead to higher oil prices if Iran walks away from the US-Iran memorandum of understanding before the mid-term US elections. Furthermore, falling vessel traffic could eventually force producers to reduce output if storage fills up due to an inability to export crude.
The latest developments contradict earlier expectations from the International Energy Agency and others, who had forecasted comfortable global oil supplies returning to a surplus towards the end of 2026, assuming a gradual recovery of tanker traffic through the strait. However, the reliability of Middle Eastern supply is deteriorating, just as Asian demand is expected to rebound. Saudi Arabia's Aramco recently cut prices by $11 per barrel to a $1.50 discount versus the Oman/Dubai benchmark, aiming to encourage Chinese refiners to increase purchases after a sharp decline in imports. Tanker traffic through Hormuz has already fallen to its lowest level in two months, with confirmed crossings declining by about 52% week-on-week, according to Kpler data from July 10-12, indicating a shift towards more defensive routing patterns.
War risk premiums for the Strait of Hormuz are expected to sharply increase, as shipowners and charterers pause decisions to transit the waterway due to escalating tensions. Lloyd's List Intelligence notes this comes after targeted attacks, including two Iranian cruise missiles hitting UAE tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah in Omani territorial waters on Tuesday morning. One Indian crew member died, eight were injured, and both tankers sustained damage from fires.
