Iranian-linked oil tankers have been shifting their positions in anticipation of a US-Iran peace deal, which could allow Tehran to resume selling its crude. Vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows four ships, including two supertankers capable of carrying 2 million barrels each, activating their transponders and moving out of the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman.
Despite previous claims by Iran of closing the Strait of Hormuz, millions of barrels of oil continue to flow through the waterway. Five laden oil supertankers with a combined capacity of 8 million barrels were observed entering or traveling within the strait over a recent weekend, primarily using a route near Oman's coast before disabling their signals. One of these vessels resumed transmitting signals early on Sunday after reaching the Gulf of Oman, supporting the US military's assertion of its ability to defend the southern route.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have seen a more robust level this month compared to earlier in the Middle East conflict, with tankers disabling their transponders. At least four vessels carrying non-Iranian crude departed the Persian Gulf with their transponders off between Sunday and Monday. Bloomberg's calculations, based on Kpler and Vortexa data, indicate that the seven-day average for inferred crude outflows has remained above 2 million barrels per day so far this month.
The recent US-Iran deal has led to a significant increase in vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, June 18, 25 vessels transited, marking the highest single-day count since June 2, although this is still considerably below the pre-war average of over 100 ships daily. Kpler reports that at least 20 oil tankers have crossed the strait since the agreement took effect, with 13 crossings moving west-to-east and 12 east-to-west. This activity includes three Saudi and one UAE Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and five Iranian supertankers loaded with oil, signaling a gradual normalization of traffic. The deal includes a 60-day toll-free passage, with future governance to be negotiated with Oman and Gulf states.
While traffic is increasing, uncertainty and caution persist among shipowners. Maritime analysts note that available data is limited as some vessels switch off tracking transponders in sensitive areas. Despite the US Central Command reporting 55 commercial ships passed through the strait on a Saturday (the highest daily number since the start of the conflict), and the US Energy Secretary stating 67 ships crossed during a 24-hour period, these figures remain well below the pre-war average of approximately 130 vessels per day. The conflicting messages between Washington and Tehran continue to make shipowners cautious, even in the absence of confirmed attacks on commercial vessels.
