The United States and Iran are poised to formally sign an interim peace deal, expected by Friday at the latest. This memorandum of understanding, described as a "page and a half" and "very general" by Vice President JD Vance, will be followed by two months of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and other issues. While both sides are claiming victory, the full text has not yet been publicly released, with Qatari and Pakistani mediators requesting a delay, although the White House is pushing for an earlier release. President Trump stated the U.S. had reached a deal on Sunday, with electronic signing by Trump, Vance, and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf occurring earlier in the week.
Energy insiders are skeptical about how quickly the Strait of Hormuz can reopen, despite Trump's claims that ships are already moving. However, the deal includes provisions for Iran to sell oil immediately through sanctions waivers, and officials anticipate the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on Friday, returning to pre-war traffic levels within 30 days. The agreement also envisions Iran receiving at least $300 billion for post-war reconstruction, an extraordinary figure that, along with full sanctions relief and release of frozen funds, is contingent on Iran fundamentally changing its behavior and the progress of further negotiations.
Technical talks regarding Iran's nuclear program are expected to begin this week. The interim deal sets a 60-day window, extendable if needed, to negotiate limits on Iran's nuclear activities. During this period, the U.S. has pledged not to threaten military action. The agreement also specifies a new "minimum" standard for downblending highly enriched Iranian uranium and includes provisions to ensure the "territorial integrity" of Lebanon following Israeli attacks against Hezbollah.
While the White House communications director Steven Cheung stated that a leaked version of the deal "does not reflect the language of the actual" agreement, without elaborating, senior U.S. officials dictated the draft to journalists, confirming key elements. President Trump has cautioned that the agreement is not final and the U.S. could resume bombing Iran "if they don't behave." The accord will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days, during which both sides will negotiate the specifics of a final agreement, with a signing ceremony anticipated in Switzerland.
