S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4th that it would not fast-track the inclusion of large, recently public companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic into its S&P 500 index. This decision keeps in place the existing eligibility rules, which include a 12-month post-IPO seasoning period, a 10% minimum public float requirement, and a GAAP profitability screen (positive net income over four quarters). S&P stated that exceptions should not be granted solely based on market capitalization, protecting its index reputation and preventing funds tracking the S&P 500 (like VOO and SPY) from being forced to buy SpaceX, at least for the next 12 months or until it becomes profitable.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that this rejection withholds approximately $14 billion of automatic passive buying from SpaceX, $8 billion from OpenAI, and $4.6 billion from Anthropic. While OpenAI is targeting an autumn IPO and Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1st, SpaceX's prospectus notably set its offer price at $135 a share without proposing a price range, a highly unusual move. Its market cap is estimated by some at $1.77 trillion, while Morningstar recently valued it at just $780 billion, citing the huge costs and risks associated with its AI segment.
Despite S&P's decision, other index providers have altered their rules. For instance, Nasdaq-100 holders (QQQ) will become forced buyers of SpaceX once it joins, as it becomes eligible after just 15 trading days post-IPO (down from a standard three-month window). FTSE-Russell similarly reduced its waiting period to 5 days. Total stock market funds like VTI and ITOT will also own SpaceX by definition. This means that while S&P has held the line, SpaceX will still find its way into many portfolios through other index funds, forcing an estimated $18 to $20 billion of passive capital into the stock within two weeks of its IPO.
SpaceX's IPO is slated for June 12, 2026, at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, despite reported net losses of $4.94 billion in 2025 and $4.3 billion in Q1 2026. According to its filing, 76% of its $40 billion annual capital spending is directed toward AI data centers, not its known rocket and satellite businesses. The company is operating with a very low public float, estimated at around 5% initially, yet Nasdaq will calculate its weight as if the float were 15% of total shares outstanding, creating a significant supply-demand squeeze when passive funds are forced to buy.
