Crude oil exports from key Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran, rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, according to Kpler data. This marks the highest export volume since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in February. Despite this increase, regional exports remained approximately 6 million bpd below the February levels of 18.8 million bpd, or 3.2 million bpd below 19.513 million bpd, depending on the Kpler estimate cited.
The rebound was significantly driven by Saudi Arabia, which more than doubled its crude exports. Saudi shipments were on track to reach about 5.4 million bpd in September, a substantial increase from 2.446 million bpd in August. Loadings from Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura port surged to about 3.6 million bpd from 929,000 bpd in August, though these figures were still below the 6.411 million bpd recorded in February. The increase in Saudi exports was partly due to the diversion of oil through Gulf terminals and the Strait of Hormuz after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline earlier in September.
Exports through the Strait of Hormuz were set to reach about 7.4 million bpd in September. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that oil flows through the strait averaged nearly 13 million bpd, with some days even exceeding pre-conflict levels. The US military has facilitated the transit of over 2,000 commercial vessels and more than 1 billion barrels of crude oil through the strait, indicating a move towards managing the risk despite ongoing security concerns. Wright attributed pressure on energy prices more to limited refining capacity than to the volume of oil moving through Hormuz.
While the physical recovery is progressing, the overall sentiment remains affected by geopolitical developments, including potential US diesel export bans and ongoing US-Iran talks. Kpler estimates that Middle East crude exports are at just under 80% of pre-conflict levels, including transits via the Strait of Hormuz, ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, and exports from UAE's Fujairah and Oman terminals, as well as Red Sea exports.
Approximately 19 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, exited the Strait of Hormuz in the last week of September. The increased use of the Gulf route has tightened tanker logistics and pushed ship-to-ship transfer capacity in the Gulf of Oman towards its limits, with rerouting 3 million bpd of Saudi crude potentially requiring an additional 36 to 40 VLCCs.
