Carnival Corporation increased its full-year earnings forecast for the third straight quarter, primarily due to a record pace in forward bookings and enhanced net yields. The cruise operator now expects an adjusted net income of about $2.93 billion, which is an increase of $235 million from its June projection and surpasses analysts' expectations. This positive outlook follows a strong second quarter where Carnival reported record revenues of $6.7 billion and adjusted net income of $569 million, representing over a 20% increase year-over-year. The company also reached an all-time high in customer deposits, totaling $9.0 billion, an increase of more than $450 million compared to the previous year's record.
For the full year 2026, Carnival anticipates net yields to be up approximately 3.2% compared to record 2025 levels, or 1.75% to 2.25% in constant currency after accounting for specific redeployments and accounting impacts. Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD are projected to increase by approximately 3.7%, or 2.4% in constant currency. The company's guidance for the full year includes an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7.11 billion and an adjusted net income of about $3.07 billion, leading to an adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $2.22.
The company's booked position for the remainder of 2026 is ahead of the prior year at historically high prices, with approximately 93% of the year's inventory booked. Demand for 2027 and beyond also continues to exceed prior-year levels, with booking volumes and prices for future sailings running ahead since March. This includes a substantial increase in bookings for European deployments next year, reinforcing confidence in the long-term demand environment despite navigating geopolitical volatility that impacted booking trends for European deployments in the current year. Carnival deliberately prioritized pricing integrity over occupancy in these affected regions.
However, analyst reactions have been mixed. While some, like Jefferies, maintained a "Buy" rating and a target of $33, other firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan cut their 2027 adjusted EPS estimates to $2.35 and $2.44, respectively, citing concerns over fuel costs and potential softness in European and Caribbean pricing. Despite a more than 25% drop in Carnival's stock year-to-date, its valuation remains competitive at roughly 7.5x NTM EV/EBITDA, compared to Royal Caribbean's 10.5x and Norwegian's 9x.
