Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure as Hormuz Disruptions Drag On

QatarEnergy has prolonged its force majeure on liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to both European and Asian customers, with cancellations now extending into early November. This ongoing disruption is primarily attributed to the halted regular LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. For instance, Italian utility Edison has been informed that QatarEnergy will be unable to deliver another five LNG cargoes scheduled between late September and early November. This brings the total number of affected cargoes under Edison's contract to 29 since April, representing approximately 3.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas.

The prolonged disruption has significantly impacted the global LNG market, removing most Qatari LNG from circulation. Over the first six months of the conflict, Qatar exported only 18 cargoes, a stark contrast to the 509 shipped during the same period a year prior. This decline is estimated to have cost Qatar around $24 billion in lost gas sales. While other exporters like the United States, Canada, Nigeria, and Malaysia have increased output, they have not fully covered the shortfall. Some Asian markets have resorted to cutting consumption or switching to alternative fuels, while Europe has drawn more heavily from its gas storage rather than aggressively competing for expensive spot market cargoes.

Analysts, such as Anne-Sophie Corbeau from Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, suggest that the global market could face a prolonged period of imbalance, with a return to a more comfortable supply-demand equilibrium not expected until 2028, despite previous projections of mid-2026. Countries heavily reliant on Qatari or Emirati LNG, particularly those dependent on short-term purchases like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, are identified as most vulnerable. China and Europe have managed the situation partly by utilizing existing gas storage. QatarEnergy's month-by-month extension of the force majeure reflects the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of normal export operations through the Strait of Hormuz.