Southern Africa is bracing for a significant El Niño event, anticipated to peak between November 2026 and February 2027. This climate phenomenon is expected to bring erratic and mostly below-normal rainfall from October 2026 to March 2027, a critical period for agriculture. The Institute of International Finance has indicated that Africa generally enters this El Niño from a weaker economic position than a decade ago, exacerbating price pressures already present due to global conflicts.
Despite this challenging outlook, some areas, particularly South Africa, are in a relatively strong position regarding maize supply. The 2025/26 summer saw above-normal rainfall, boosting dam levels and soil moisture, leading to a record maize harvest. South Africa's 2026 commercial maize crop is estimated at 17.40 million tonnes, a 4.5% increase from 2025, with projected closing stock levels of 5.12 million tonnes by April 30, 2027. This surplus is expected to act as a buffer against immediate food price surges, particularly for maize and potentially meat and vegetables.
However, the strong El Niño still poses substantial risks. While current reserves offer a cushion, the 2027 harvest remains uncertain, with forecasts of high temperatures and below-normal rainfall potentially causing severe heat stress, reduced crop yields, and greater production decreases for dryland crops like maize, sunflower, soybeans, and potatoes. This could lead to an increase in food prices, with consumers likely feeling the impact in late 2027 if El Niño conditions manifest as predicted. The event is seen as a "stress test" for South Africa's food systems, highlighting vulnerabilities due to high input costs and low commodity prices experienced by farmers in 2026. Experts emphasize the need for effective disaster response, targeted relief for vulnerable groups, and scrutiny of food prices to prevent profiteering.
