Iran is currently awaiting an official US response to its recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the ongoing conflict in the broader Middle East. This comes after The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump rejected the peace plan. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that the proposal requires the US to fulfill commitments from the failed June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on an accelerated timeline. These actions include the release of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, the lifting of Iranian oil sanctions, and the termination of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Araghchi also insisted on a cessation of all hostilities, including in Lebanon, during a seven-day period.
The Iranian proposal outlined that once US conditions are met, which Araghchi estimated would take four or five days, the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened. Negotiations with the US for a "final deal" would then commence on the seventh day. While both the US and Iran have indicated that the door to diplomacy remains open, with Qatar mediating talks, there is significant skepticism in Washington regarding the alignment of the two countries' objectives. Thomas Warrick, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, highlighted this disconnect.
The rejection by Trump suggests a potential shift towards renewed hostilities. According to US officials cited in The Wall Street Journal, Trump told aides he anticipates a new bombing campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections in November. This follows Trump's earlier statement at the UN General Assembly where he threatened to "annihilate" Iran. However, Trump has also expressed belief that a deal to end the conflict will emerge shortly after the midterms. Paul Musgrave, an associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, suggested that Trump's stance is to avoid ending the war on unfavorable terms, with the outcome of the November elections likely influencing his policy. If Republicans face significant losses in the midterms, Trump might resort to "unilateral actions, including perhaps a resumption of warfare."
The current situation marks a critical juncture after six months of conflict, which Reuters described in August as a "costly stalemate." Despite the military campaign, Iran's government remains in power but is under severe economic pressure due to sanctions and the blockade. The new proposal for a seven-day deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, was seen by some analysts as an attempt by Tehran to influence Trump's political calculations ahead of the midterms. However, Trump has indicated no rush for a deal, aiming to maintain pressure on Iran's economy. The potential for a return to fighting risks driving oil prices higher, which could impact voters and the economy just before the elections.
