President Trump has privately informed aides that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if U.S. troops are killed. This stance suggests his willingness to tolerate smaller skirmishes for weeks or even months to avert a wider Middle East conflict. This comes despite a steady stream of violent flare-ups, including missile and drone attacks by Iran on regional U.S. bases and Kuwait's international airport, which resulted in one fatality. The president's reluctance to re-escalate into an all-out war indicates a strategic patience, even as diplomatic talks remain stalled.
However, Trump has also publicly stated that he is weighing a "massive attack" on Iran, potentially larger than the Operation Epic Fury strikes that initiated the war on February 28. He told Axios he is "close to making a decision" and that the U.S. is "all set for it." This aggressive posture follows Iran's rejection of a 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered by Iraq. Trump suggested that escalating attacks might compel Iran to negotiate, emphasizing that Iran is "not ready" for a deal and has "evil intentions." He also asserted that Israel would join an attack "in two minutes" if asked, though the U.S. "don't need anybody."
The conflict's impact on energy markets has been significant, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical sticking point. Iran militarized the strait at the war's outset, halting commercial shipping and causing energy prices to skyrocket. A June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding left the strait's management ambiguous, with Oman and Iran slated for discussions. Days after its signing, Iran resumed attacks on commercial ships, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes. Trump has also threatened to attack Iran's civil infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, and to "wipe out" Iran's Revolutionary Guards, while Iran has vowed revenge for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Despite Trump's public assurances that the war would end "immediately" after the U.S. midterm elections, top White House advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have privately raised concerns that the conflict could persist through the remainder of his term. A prolonged war would strain military resources and risk long-term disruptions to global oil markets amidst the 2028 presidential election. Gas prices have already risen, averaging $4.22 a gallon, up from $4.01 a month ago. Analysts suggest the U.S. naval blockade, dubbed "Operation Economic Outcast," is a long-term siege unlikely to yield a quick, decisive outcome.
