On Holding experienced a significant one-day stock surge of 13% after its investor day in Zurich, where it announced ambitious targets including CHF 5.6 billion in annual sales by 2029 and authorized a $1 billion share buyback program through 2029. This investor confidence boost followed the recent signing of football superstar Kylian Mbappé, who ended his decade-long relationship with Nike to become the anchor of On's new football push. Thierry Henry was also named the brand's first director of football, with their first commercial football boot set for a 2027 retail release. The company is targeting a gross margin above 65% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 22% by 2029.
However, Wall Street analysts are divided on the long-term impact of On's foray into football. Michael Binetti of Evercore ISI sees the Mbappé signing as a direct challenge to Nike and Adidas, expecting it to be a near-term catalyst. Conversely, Citi's Paul Lejuez acknowledged the exposure to the $30 billion global football market but warned about the difficulty of attracting more Nike-signed athletes. Jefferies was more skeptical, viewing the partnership as an attempt to find new growth as the running category in the U.S. market slows. On's market capitalization before the investor day was around $9.1 billion, significantly less than Nike's $53.9 billion.
The bullish investor day followed a period where On's stock had fallen nearly 40% for the year, largely due to a disappointing Q2 2026 performance. Net sales in Q2 were CHF 850.3 million, missing analyst estimates of CHF 878.16 million, and shares dropped 22% upon the announcement. Revenue growth in the Americas, On's largest market, decelerated for the second consecutive quarter to 13% in constant currency, down from 17% a quarter earlier. Despite these challenges, CFO Frank Sluis defended the company's decision to maintain full-price integrity even in a promotional environment, and full-year guidance for low-20% constant-currency growth was retained.
