U.S. imports of Paraguayan beef increased by 46% between January and July 2026, amounting to 30,000 tons, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. This rise is primarily attributed to shipments of frozen lean beef used in ground beef production, addressing the tight domestic cattle supplies in the U.S. Paraguay is anticipated to become the U.S.'s third-largest beef market by volume in 2027, trailing only Chile and Israel. Under the existing tariff-rate quota, exporters estimate 8,000 to 10,000 tons entered the U.S. in 2026.

Additional opportunities for Paraguayan beef exports have emerged through a temporary U.S. tariff-free quota for lean beef trimmings. Paraguayan exporters believe they could supply an extra 5,000 to 10,000 tons under this measure, though Brazil is expected to secure the majority of this volume. Overall, Paraguay could export between 65,000 to 70,000 tons to the U.S. in 2026, exceeding initial projections of 60,000 tons, especially with the 300,000-ton extraordinary window opened by the U.S. between September and November.

Paraguay's 2027 beef exports are projected to reach 460,000 tons carcass-weight equivalent, supported by increasing production and modest growth in domestic consumption. The U.S. market's opening has also led to a historic record price for Paraguayan cattle, reaching $5.30 per kilogram of carcass on August 11, reflecting an upward trend since mid-last year. The temporary suspension of import tariffs for up to 300,000 metric tons of grinding beef by the U.S. is seen as a significant opportunity for Paraguay, as most of its beef exports to the U.S. fall into this category.

While Brazil is a major competitor for Paraguay in this market, Paraguay's integration with Brazil's beef sector might allow it to backfill domestic demand in Brazil, freeing up more volume for U.S. buyers. The general manager of the Paraguayan Meat Chamber, Daniel Burt, views the U.S. market as crucial, already representing 10% to 15% of Paraguayan red protein exports within just two years of market access. The new quota, distributed in three 100,000-ton tranches, operates on a first-come, first-served basis, making Paraguayan beef more competitive for importers by potentially eliminating tariffs.