Qatar has ramped up its liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, reaching the fastest pace in over two months. Over the past week, at least two loaded LNG carriers exited the waterway, while two others sailed into the Persian Gulf, with one cargo destined for India's west coast. This marks the most sustained increase in transits since early July, following a period where Qatar had largely reduced shipments after an attack on one of its vessels. Before the recent conflict, approximately 20 percent of the world's LNG passed through Hormuz, averaging about three shipments daily; current flows, though improved, remain below this historical pace.
This uptick in Qatari LNG movements is critical for a global gas market struggling with tight supply and surging prices, as winter approaches. Prices in Europe and Asia have climbed to their highest levels since 2022 in recent weeks. While the overall flow remains constrained due to ongoing security concerns and high war-risk insurance costs, any incremental cargo helps to provide some breathing room for winter supply and price risks.
Despite the recent increase in shipments, fully restoring normal LNG exports from Qatar faces significant challenges. Approximately 17 percent of Qatar's LNG capacity, equating to 12.8 million tonnes per year, is currently offline due to damage to two export trains. Repairs for these facilities are estimated to take three to five years. Furthermore, even with a reopening of Hormuz, the process of restoring regular marine flows will take time, as security concerns persist and the technical difficulties of transferring super-chilled fuel between ships make alternative shuttling methods, common for oil, unfeasible for LNG. The global LNG market had already entered the recent disruption with a thinner supply cushion, with spare liquefaction capacity falling about 10 million tonnes short of Hormuz volumes in 2025, according to the IEF and Japan's Jogmec. The absence of 36 million tonnes of Qatari and Emirati supply year-to-date compared to 2025 has been partially offset by new volumes from the US and Canada, but Europe remains particularly exposed with historically low gas inventories.
QatarEnergy is already preparing for a prolonged shortfall, actively seeking multi-year US LNG contracts through 2031, a shift from its previous reliance on US spot cargoes to fulfill commitments to Asian customers. This indicates an expectation that damaged capacity will continue to constrain supply beyond any immediate reopening of Hormuz. Analysts note that prices have significantly increased this year, with Asian prices up about 150 percent and European prices up about 100 percent. Asian buyers spent $7.8 billion on spot cargoes in the first nine months of the year, compared to $3 billion a year earlier. While some experts believe the industry can react faster than reports suggest for restoration, the structural damage and shipping bottlenecks mean that even with increased transits, a full return to pre-conflict export levels is not expected soon.
