The Dangote Refinery, located near Lagos, Nigeria, has launched an initial public offering (IPO) on September 14, 2026, aiming to raise approximately $1.6 billion. The IPO involves 4.1 billion shares offered at ₦525 each, with a minimum purchase of 10 shares (₦5,250 or about $4). This offering values the company at close to $49 billion, a figure that CEO David Bird and CFO Bruce Tanner defend, despite it being more than double the refinery's construction cost of $19 billion. Aliko Dangote, the owner, retains an 87% stake in the refinery.
The refinery plans to use the IPO proceeds, along with additional debt equity financing, to fund a $14 billion expansion project. This expansion aims to roughly double its capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4 million bpd, potentially making it the world's largest refinery by the first quarter of 2029. The expansion will also include additional polypropylene capacity, a linear alkylbenzene plant, a new diesel hydrotreater, and regional distribution infrastructure. An additional $16 billion Kenya plant is also in the planning stages.
The refinery's strategy is to displace less competitive imports in Africa and become a major fuel supplier to the continent, with current exports already accounting for about half of its production. This focus on African markets, particularly those from Senegal to Namibia, is projected to drive significant revenue growth, with FirstCap, a Nigerian investment bank, forecasting an average annual revenue growth of 45% between 2026 and 2030, and a three-fold increase in pre-tax profit to $13 billion within that period. The company also assures investors that dividends will be paid in US dollars, supported by its export earnings.
Despite the enthusiasm, some skeptics, like UK-based accountant Feyi Fawehinmi, question the $49 billion valuation, arguing that investors are asked to pay a lot for the refinery's earnings compared to peers. He also suggests that the refinery's use of elevated profits from the first half of 2026, influenced by high oil prices due to the Iran war, may overstate future earning potential in a normal market. Nonetheless, the IPO has generated significant buzz in Nigeria, with analysts like Mohammed Saidu of TrustBanc predicting millions of new investors.
