The American oil industry is actively pushing back against calls for a ban on diesel exports, a measure being considered by the Trump administration to address rising domestic fuel prices. Major trade groups, including the American Petroleum Institute (API) and American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), argue that such a ban would be counterproductive, leading to increased costs for consumers, reduced domestic fuel production, and ultimately hurting American families, farmers, and truckers.
Industry experts and analysts from sources like S&P Global Energy CERA and Rapidan Energy warn that an export ban would force US refiners to significantly cut production, potentially by as much as 1.9 million barrels per day, a scale not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. This reduction in refinery runs would not only cause a domestic diesel glut, particularly in the Gulf Coast, but also lead to higher prices for other fuels like gasoline and jet fuel. For instance, gasoline production could fall by 750,000 barrels per day, turning the US into a net gasoline importer.
Analysts further predict that a ban could cause global diesel prices to surge by as much as 100%, create deeper shortages in Europe, and strain US ties with allies. The US currently exports a record 1.6 million barrels per day of diesel, with these exports generating approximately $25 billion in revenue over a 90-day period. Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that restrictions are being considered rather than an outright ban, but still cautioned that such measures would lead to more expensive gasoline right away. Some oil executives estimate a diesel export ban could raise fuel prices by $0.30 per gallon, with gasoline prices potentially reaching record levels.
