The oil industry is strongly opposing a potential diesel export ban, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) stating that such restrictions would "compound the problem" of refining challenges and harm consumers. API CEO Mike Sommers emphasized that increasing supply and flexibility, rather than imposing new restrictions, is the correct approach to the current fuel situation. This pushback comes as President Donald Trump considers a 90-day ban on diesel exports, a move that has already caused stocks of U.S. refiners like Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 to fall.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified that the administration is considering restrictions rather than an outright ban, acknowledging the complexity of refining and aiming to avoid a "blunt hammer" policy. Wright, an industry insider, warned that an export ban would immediately lead to more expensive gasoline as U.S. refineries would be forced to cut production, including gasoline, once storage tanks fill up.
Industry experts further predict significant negative consequences. An oil industry executive told CNBC that a diesel export ban could raise fuel prices by $0.30 per gallon. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, suggested that gasoline prices could reach record levels. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former energy advisor, noted that while some brief price relief might occur in certain regions like the Gulf Coast and lower Midwest, prices would ultimately rise globally to levels higher than otherwise, and U.S. trade partners could retaliate. An export ban could also lead to global diesel price increases of up to 100%, according to economist Verleger.
